Publications

Infectious diseases are commonly cited as significant contributors to wildlife population declines. It is, therefore, important to investigate the extent to which tools designed to mitigate the effects of infectious diseases explain wildlife responses to habitat management. Ruffed grouse Bonasa umbellus populations have experienced long-term declines throughout their eastern range. These declines are strongly correlated with the reduced availability of early successional forests and, in more recent decades, the mosquito-borne pathogen, West Nile virus (Flaviviridae, Flavivirus; WNV). Efforts to increase the amount of early successional forests have intensified in Pennsylvania over the past twenty years, especially across northern hardwood and mixed oak timber stands. Additionally, a decision support tool for predicting WNV risk (the Grouse Priority Area Siting Tool, G-PAST) was developed to help inform where ruffed grouse habitat creation would be most effective by minimizing contact between grouse and WNV-carrying mosquitoes. Forest type is also known to influence ruffed grouse space use and demography. Thus, monitoring ruffed grouse response to habitat creation through the lens of predicted WNV risk and forest community type (northern hardwood versus mixed oak) may provide managers with further insight regarding strategies for ruffed grouse population recovery. From 2021 to 2023, we deployed autonomous recording units (paired with an autonomous classifier) in 305 regenerating timber harvests (7–16-year-old) across Pennsylvania. Survey locations were stratified by WNV risk level (low versus high) and forest type. Overall, ruffed grouse occupancy ((Formula presented.) = 0.75) was most influenced by landscape connectivity (+), % mixed oak (−), and short woody stem density (−) but not G-PAST predicted WNV risk. Thus, land managers aiming to conserve Pennsylvania's ruffed grouse should focus their attention on aspects of landscape connectivity and forest type when implementing grouse habitat management. Managers in Pennsylvania can expect, on average, high ruffed grouse occupancy (~ 75% of sites) in 7–16-year-old northern hardwood or mixed oak stands, regardless of WNV risk predicted by G-PAST. Our results demonstrate that successful outcomes for forest management that target ruffed grouse will be driven by landscape characteristics, forest type, and within-stand vegetation. Future work correlating longer-term patterns (e.g. dynamic occupancy) or demographic rates with G-PAST predictions may provide additional insight to help further guide grouse conservation efforts in Pennsylvania. © 2025 The Authors. Wildlife Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Society Oikos.

Aims: The dwarf shrubs Calluna vulgaris, Vaccinium myrtillus, and V. vitis-idaea are functionally important species in boreal forest, driving ecosystem processes and delivering multiple ecosystem services. Their dependency on previous and present land-use calls for tools to estimate the outcomes of different forest management strategies on their abundance. Here we built models for estimating their cover as a response to forest structure, soils, and legacy effects, with the ultimate target to be used in decision support systems to be able to adapt future management. Location: Sweden. Methods: We fitted Generalized Linear Mixed Models with beta error distribution, and accounting for zero-inflation, based on data (n > 2800) on plant cover, forest structure, and soils from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. Results: The resulting best models include forest density and tree species composition, and their interaction effects, likely governing the light availability in the forest understory for all three species. These models also included soil fertility indicated by the C:N ratio, the age of the forest as an indicator of time since disturbance, and the cover of the focal species 10 years earlier to account for legacy and time-lag effects. Although these variables were important for the model predictions of all three species, there were interspecific differences in the response due to the stress tolerance of the species and their placement in the leaf economics spectrum. Conclusions: We show that it is possible to predict the cover of these species with higher accuracy (R2 = 0.44–0.60) than previously has been achieved, using predictors available from for example, national forest inventories. Hence, our models will improve the estimations of the outcomes of different forest management strategies on the cover of these species. This will be important when weighing pros and cons for ecosystem functions and services, and thus imperative for sustainable forest management. © 2025 The Author(s). Applied Vegetation Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Association for Vegetation Science.

The forests of the Ukrainian Carpathians, particularly within the “Skole Beskids” National Nature Park, are under increasing pressure from climate change and human activities. These disturbances, which range from climate-induced droughts and pest outbreaks to illegal logging, undermine forest health, reduce carbon sequestration, and disrupt vital ecosystem functions. Effective, data-driven decision-making is essential to respond to these complex challenges and ensure sustainable forest management. This study uses satellite remote sensing to monitor and analyse forest disturbances in the Skole Beskids between 2023 and 2024. A time series of Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery was processed to detect changes in forest cover. This was enhanced using elevation data from the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model to account for topographic variation. Machine learning techniques, including Random Forest classifiers, were employed to ensure the accurate and scalable classification of land cover changes. Preliminary results suggest that approximately 1.83 hectares of forest cover have been lost, with the most affected areas being those near zones of commercial logging and within structurally sensitive forest compartments, including those adjacent to military forest districts. Sentinel-2 data enabled effective medium-resolution mapping, while AI-enhanced analysis improved the reliability of classifications and minimised the risk of overfitting. This research provides timely and actionable insights, demonstrating the value of satellite-based monitoring as a decision-support tool for forest governance. It contributes to the development of an operational framework for forest monitoring based on remote sensing in the Ukrainian Carpathians, supporting national efforts to establish a Ukrainian National Forest Monitoring System. Future work will explore integrating additional environmental datasets, such as meteorological records and field-based observations, to enhance the accuracy and applicability of forest disturbance detection further. © 2025 Copyright for this paper by its authors.

Recent increases in fire activity in Sweden call for the quantification of forest fire susceptibility, in order to develop management strategies to mitigate fire risk. Using the data from 100 large Swedish forest fires (>10 ha), mapped from sentinel-2 images from 2016 to 2022, we explored the predictive power of vegetation properties in estimating relative likelihood of fires within a landscape using logistic regression. To model spatially explicit fire susceptibility within a given landscape, we used the outcome of logistic regression as an input into a cellular automata model (CA model), which simulates fire spread in a 2D grid. The CA was model calibrated on three fires that occurred between 2016 and 2022, then verified on six 2023 fires and featured a mean sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.79. The logistic regression model had an accuracy of 54 %, showing increased fire susceptibility from high Scots pine volume (p-value = 0.02), and decreased fire susceptibility from high volumes of deciduous trees and wet soil. Realistic outcomes of the CA model and reliance of our approach on publicly available data with nation-wide coverage of vegetation cover in Sweden allows for the development of an automated protocol of fire susceptibility assessment at the operational level and its integration in existing decision support systems. This would allow forest owners to obtain estimates of forest fire susceptibility for different forest management strategies. © 2024

Managing wildfires relies on comprehensive prevention studies and decision-making plans, with the forest road network serving as the primary means for ground firefighting forces. This research establishes a multi-criteria assessment and improvement system for forest areas accessibility, enhancing firefighting operations. Criteria like hiking time, distance from the road network, and terrain topography determine accessibility. Using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and spatial analysis considering slope, aspect, fuel type, and distances from human infrastructure, high fire risk areas are identified. This insight led to designing new roads in critical zones to enhance firefighting effectiveness. Re-evaluating accessibility post-road design demonstrates the percentage improvement achieved. Applied in mountainous, mid-altitude, and suburban Mediterranean forest ecosystems, this methodology offers guidelines for real-world forest management, enhancing the sustainability and resilience of forest ecosystems. Copyright © 2025 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

For well-founded decisions in sustainable timber harvesting, it is important to know the preferences of different stakeholders. The concept of sustainable timber harvesting is to incorporate economic, social, and environmental criteria. In a previous study, 33 criteria were identified by forest experts as relevant for evaluating sustainability. To assess the importance of these criteria, an online survey was conducted among Austrian stakeholders between April and May 2023, in which 610 people were invited to participate and which resulted in a response rate of 47%. The survey participants were primarily male (94%), with an average age of 47 and an average of 20 years of work experience. The key criteria for sustainable harvesting that were unanimously mentioned by the stakeholders on the basis of a Likert scale, included occupational hazards, residual stand damage, loss of wood quality due to poor work performance, biomass regeneration, water erosion, noise exposure, soil rutting, physical workload, working conditions, and vibration exposure. Younger or less experienced workers generally rated the criteria as less important than older and more experienced workers. These identified preferences will inform the development of a decision support model for sustainable timber harvesting using these criteria as input parameters. © 2025 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Climate change increases the risks of forest damage (Schafellner & Möller, 2019; Niesar et al., 2013). As a result of climate change-related alterations and society’s growing demand for forest ecosystem services, the challenges for risk management in forest protection are intensifying (Möller, 2021). To address these challenges better, the State Forestry Research Centre Eberswalde (LFE) has been conducting research on key components of forest protection risk management through externally funded projects for years. This includes monitoring, improving the accuracy of forecasts or, in an emergency, the decision for or against the use of pesticides, as well as the possibilities of prophylaxis through silvicultural measures. Five selected projects funded by the BMEL (German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection) are highlighted. These projects focused on these issues, and their results provide valuable insights for future forest protection strategies. For decades, LFE has relied on scientifically based monitoring to assess forest health across Brandenburg and has used this data to guide decisions on forest protection measures. In the WAHYKLAS and DSS-RiskMan projects, the digitization and georeferencing of forest protection data have laid the foundation for comprehensive analyses of risk factors and the potential for silvicultural preventive measures. Particularly for climate protection purposes, the primary goal of forest protection risk management should be the preservation of forests as the foundation for the sustainable safeguarding of all natural and societal functions. Decisions in forest protection risk management must always be made with consideration of their impact on all ecosystem services. The expected consequences of disturbances must be assessed objectively. This includes the potential use of plant protection products in emergency situations. The ARTEMIS project thoroughly researched this socially controversial topic. One of the outcomes is an extensive online knowledge tool on forest protection issues. Furthermore, the RiMa-Wald project developed new insights into the ecotoxicological effects of insecticides on non-target organisms in forests. The AWANTI project explored the economic aspects and evaluated the risks and benefits of forest protection measures. The results of externally funded projects, which often form part of large project networks, combined with the ongoing practical forest protection work at the LFE, are working in synergy to significantly enhance knowledge and, consequently, improve decision-making competence in the planning and implementation of forest protection measures. Since 2022, LFE has contributed to greater transparency in forest protection activities through a dedicated forest protection information website. By sharing details on survey methods, assessments, and long-term data, LFE is fostering constructive communication with a wide range of forest stakeholders and the public. © 2025 Julius Kuhn-Institut Federal Research Center for Cultivated Plants. All rights reserved.

Forests provide a variety of ecosystem services (ESs) that contribute to a society’s wellbeing. ES provision depends on the structure and evolution of forest ecosystems and is influenced by forest management. Society’s increasing need for ESs requires these complex ecological dynamics to be understood and integrated in forest management and planning. We present the decision support system (DSS) Multisilva for multifunctional forest management. The Multisilva DSS is a web-based application that comprises two tools: the Mapping tool and the Simulation tool. The first tool provides spatial statistics and maps of the current provision of ESs at the forest property level. The Simulation tool compares two alternative, user-defined management scenarios over time and returns the biophysical estimations of ESs and the economic costs for each alternative. Multisilva is calibrated for Luxembourg, though it can be adapted for other temperate forest regions. © 2024 by the authors.

Key message: A validation convention can be established for forest management optimization models. It consists of (1) the delivery of face validation, (2) performing at least one other validation technique, and (3) an explicit discussion of how the optimization model fulfills the stated purpose. Validation by potential users or external experts is of high importance. Context: Optimization modeling has long assisted the management of forest ecosystems, but the credibility of these models has always been debated with criticisms concerning data quality, failures to include relevant processes in the scope of models, and the inclusion of unrealistic assumptions. Validation is widely considered to be crucial to establishing the credibility of models in general, but how to validate optimization models in particular represents a permanent question generally in operations research. Aims: We aim to synthesize practical recommendations for the development of validation frameworks in the optimization modeling for forest management. Methods: We selected a sample of 46 studies devoted to optimization models to be applied in practice, analysed the contents with respect to validation, and provided a critical review. Results: We (1) clarified the meaning and usage of different validation-related terms that are commonly encountered in the literature, (2) identified and categorised the various methods and frameworks that are used to demonstrate model credibility, and (3) derived organizing principles that helped to suggest improvements in validation frameworks. Conclusions: A practical validation convention can be established and we suggest the convention to consist of three stages. By providing structured and consistent information about validation processes, researchers in forest management optimization can better demonstrate the credibility of their work to readers and potential users. © The Author(s) 2024.

Adopting a multi-criteria approach in forest management is essential for preserving or improving specific benefits while minimizing negative environmental impacts. Determining the appropriate long-term management approach for a forest requires considering heterogeneous environmental and social factors, as well as changes in forest characteristics over time. Conducting a strategic assessment of forest use suitability (FUS), namely productive, protective, conservation-oriented, social and multifunctional, at the national level, taking into account the dynamics in the provision of forest ecosystem services and the trade-offs between FUS alternatives, can guide the development of customized management strategies and policies that align with the specific requirements and conditions of the forest. In this study, we evaluate the supply and simulation-based changes over time of diverse ecosystem services of Pinus sylvestris stands in Spain and utilize a decision model to determine the most suitable FUS alternative that enhances the provision of these services. The assignment of the most appropriate FUS alternative aims to help in decision-making processes and in the selection of the most adequate management strategies. To achieve this, we utilize the last version of ecosystem management decision support (EMDS) system, a spatially focused decision support tool capable of generating precise results for multi-criteria assessment. Participatory planning actions based on Delphi principles and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis were applied and combined with geospatial logic-based modelling. According to the results, the dominant FUS is protective, followed by productive alternative, exhibiting high levels of multifunctionality. © The Author(s) 2024.