Agflor

Wiki quality control

Has flag	N/A

Name, responsible organisation and contact person

Has full name	Agro-forestry decision support system
Has acronym	Agflor
Has wiki contact person	Jose Borges
Has wiki contact e-mail	joseborges@isa.utl.bt

Software identification

Has software	Agflor.Software

Description

Has description	It is a tool to help access the impacts of policy changes on regional land use patterns. It was used by Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture Regional Office of Alentejo (DRAPAL) to assess the impacts of common agricultural policy changes on agricultural and forestry activities on regional land use patterns over an area extending over 2 million hectares.
Has modelling scope	Economical indicators, Forest indicators, Social indicators
Has temporal scale	Long term (strategic)
Has spatial context	Spatial with neighbourhood interrelations
Has spatial scale	Regional/national level
Has objectives dimension	Multiple objectives
Has related DSS	Agflor
Has goods and services dimension	Market non-wood products, Market wood products
Has decision making dimension	More than one decision maker
Has forest management goal	afforestation management, economic evaluation
Supports tree species	the model does not specifies any tree species in particular and thus is applicable for variety of tree species.
Supports silvicultural regime	agroforestry

Concrete application

Has typical use case	The current model has been applied to an area extending over 2 million hectares.
Has user profile	national forest administration, local communities, local administration
Has country	Portugal
Has references about examples of application
Has number of users	N/A
Has number of real-life applications	N/A
Has utilisation in education	N/A
Has research project reference	Borges, P. J., R. Fragoso, J. Garcia-Gonzalo, J. G. Borges, S. Marques & Lucas, M. R. 2010. Assessing impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns with a decision support system: An application in Southern Portugal, Forest Policy and Economics, 12 (2): 111–120, DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2009.09.002. Available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934109001178
Has tool dissemination

Decision support techniques used in the DSS

Has decision support techniques	Agflor.Decision support techniques

Support of Knowledge Management

Has knowledge management processes	Agflor.Knowledge management process

Support of social participation

Has support for social participation	Agflor.Support of social participation

DSS development

Has DSS development	Agflor.Description of DSS development

Documentation

Has website
Has online demo
Has manual	Yes
Has technical documentation	No
Has reference	Borges P.J., Fragoso R., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Borges J. G., Marques S. and Lucas, M.R. 2009. Assessing impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns with a decision support system. An application in Southern Portugal. Forest Policy and Economics, doi: 10.1016/ j.forpol.2009.09.002

General System description

System name: Agro-forestry decision support system

Acronym: AGfLOR

Brief overview

AGfLOR is a tool to help assess impacts of policy changes on regional land use patterns

AGfLOR menu options and logo

AGfLOR study area (from

Scope of the system

The tool in its current version provides information to assess impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns in Southern Portugal.

System origin

The system was developed in 2007/2008 by the Centre of Forest Studies of Instituto Superior of Agonomia (CEF/ISA) of the Technical University of Lisbon in the framework of Project INTERREG IIIA “Desarrollo de un sistema de información para la gestión ambiental y económica del ecosistema dehesa/montado en Extremadura y Alentejo. 2ª Fase”

AGfLOR is used by the Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture Regional Office of Alentejo (DRAPAL) to assess impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on agricultural and forestry activities and on regional land use patterns over an area extending over 2 million ha.

Support for specific issues

• The system was designed so that it might support the assessment of policy alternatives on agricultural and forestry activities and on regional land use

patterns. Its current implementation provides information about impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on forestry, agriculture (e.g. cereals, horticulture, fruit culture fruit trees, vineyards, olive trees, permanent pastures, forage, set-aside, fallow), livestock and agro-forestry activities. Namely, it provides information about changes in area occupied by each activity, and in physical production and revenues resulting from each activity.

• The user may specify the policy changes, product prices and supply elasticity, and subsidies for each agroforestry and livestock activity to

assess its impacts on regional land use patterns.

Support for specific thematic areas of a problem type

• Development choices / land use zoning
• Policy/intervention alternatives
• Sustainability impact assessment (SIA)
• Assessment of land use patterns
• impacts of subsidies

Capability to support decision making phases

• Intelligence

The GUI helps the user to specify and input policy changes, product prices and supply elasticity, and subsidies for each agroforestry and livestock activity.

• Design

The GUI provides guidance to define simulated annealing parameters.

• Choice

The LP solver and the simulated annealing algorithm and the GUI help select policies.

• Monitor

No support is provided.

Data and data models

Typical spatial extent of application

1.The system can address both the national and international policy contexts. 2.The system uses GIS information, economic data (prices, subsides, elasticity for each agro-forestry and livestock activities) and data on policy changes. 3.The data are all entered through the GUI user interface.

The system may be used both for regional analysis. It may address both national and international policy contexts

Forest data input

The system uses gis information (vectorial) to display farm-type regional units. It further uses economic data (e.g. prices, supply elasticity, subsidies)

Displaying base scenario information

Type of information input from user (via GUI)

The uses inputs data on policy changes, product prices and supply elasticity, and subsidies for each agroforestry and livestock activity.

AGfLOR input interface (from

Models

A Positive Mathematical Programming model is used to calibrate mathematical programming models according to observed behaviours during a reference period. It aims to assess economic, technical and institutional scenarios associated with changes in policies, relative prices, technologies and availability of inputs.

Decision Support

Definition of management interventions

Not applicable

Typical temporal scale of application

The system addresses mostly strategic policy issues

Types of decisions supported

• Management level
  • strategic decisions
• planning decisions
  • command decisions
  • control decisions
  • coordination decisions
• decision making situation
  • unilateral
  • collegial

Decision-making processes and models

AGfLOR uses a linear programming model and a simulated annealing meta-heuristic.

Output

Types of outputs

Results are reported in tables and in maps.

AGfLOR solution report interface (from

Spatial analysis capabilities

The system has spatial reporting capabilities. Yet it does not include spatial analysis functionalities. It provides standard data import/export formats (GIS, spreadsheet, relational database)

Abilities to address interdisciplinary, multi-scaled, and political issues

The system takes as inputs biophysical, economic and policy information.

System

System requirements

• Hardware requirements: 2 GHz Pentium IV, 1024 Mb of RAM, 250 Mb of hard disk, CD-ROM reader
• Operating Systems: Windows 2000, Windows XP or Windows Vista
• Other software needed: the user does not need to acquire additional software.
• Development status: completed

Architecture and major DSS components

• AGfLOR is a desktop application with a modular structure. It was developed with software Ms VB.NET.
• The system includes a MS Access 2003 relational database (BD_INTERREG_AGRÍCOLA), Ms Excel 2003 spreadsheets, an LP matrix generator, a simulated annealing module and a report generator. It further includes freeware (GIS and LP solver). A GUI ties all modules together to provide the user-schema.

AGfLOR architecture (from

Usage

Government use (Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture Regional Office of Alentejo (DRAPAL))

Computational limitations

Run time is impacted mostly by the number of farm types, agroforestry activities and simulated annealing parameters.

User interface

AGfLOR has a standard Windows GUI. Thoughtful use of the system requires some forest management planning and agricultural economics background.

Documentation and support

The graphical user interface provides access to the AGfLOR users' manual:

Borges, P., J. G. Borges e S. Marques. 2007, Manual de Utilização Sistema de Apoio à Decisão AGfLOR Documento Técnico n.º 07/07, Grupo de Economia e Gestão dos Recursos Naturais, Lisboa , Portugal

Installation

Simple Windows guided installation.