View source for Belgium-Participative modelling of long-term wood production in the forest complex ‘Bosland’

{{Case
|Has full name=Participative modelling of long-term wood production in the forest complex ‘Bosland’
|Has country=Belgium
|Has location=Bosland - Limburg
|Has responsible organisation=KU Leuven
|Has type of owner organization=research institution, higher or secondary education establishment
|Has related DSS=Sim4Tree
|Has start date=2010
|Has end date=2011
|Has DSS development stage=adoption
|Has decision stage=choice
|Has temporal scale=Long term (strategic)
|Has spatial context=Spatial with no neighbourhood interrelations
|Has spatial scale=Forest level
|Has decision making dimension=More than one decision maker/stakeholder
|Has objectives dimension=Multiple objectives
|Has goods and services dimension=Market wood products, Non-market services
|Has working group theme=Dss development process
|Has description=Bosland is a 4241ha publicly owned forest area in north-eastern Flanders, situated on sandy soils. Main tree species are Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Corsican pine (Pinus nigra Arnold ssp laricio var corsicana), together accounting for 80% of the forest area and 94% of the standing stock in 2010. Current management plans aim at ad hoc conversion of pine towards other species, but lack insight into the effects on future wood provision in the area.

The Aim of the study was to develop a long-term view on species composition and wood production in Bosland, based on objective comparison of management alternatives in a participatory setting. This was done by executing a scenario analysis with the first version of decision support system ‘Sim4Tree’.

Sim4Tree is a software for the projection of timber harvest and future standing stock based on forest inventory data and user-defined management choices. Site, forest composition and management are defined for homogeneous 1ha pixels, but grouping of pixels in stands or larger areas with uniform management is possible. Predictions are based on standard yield tables for the region. Sim4Tree is not fully operational yet and only available as a prototype. It was applied here to 3189 ha productive forest in Bosland, i.e. excluding forest area with nature conservation goals.

A total of 36 management scenarios were defined, combining multiple options on (1) species choice based on site suitability, (2) relative distribution over main and other species and (3) timing of conversion relative to species rotation. Sim4Tree output for each scenario included species-specific projections until 2070 for standing stock, harvest, diameter distribution, share of old trees, constant timber flow, and other derived variables.

Optimal scenarios were selected through participatory approach. After a first selection of acceptable scenarios according to the current legal framework in Flanders, a multi-criteria decision analysis (AHP) and sensitivity analysis (SMAA) were performed. Results were presented and fine-tuned at different stakeholder meetings, with representatives from the forest management, the municipalities, the wood trading and processing industry and local interest groups. A final top-3 of scenarios was discussed in detail and presented in a voting procedure to all stakeholders, resulting in a final choice.

The final scenario aims at a broad diversification of tree species in the Bosland area, which has documented ecological and economic advantages. However, as this can only be achieved by using species with sub-optimal site productivity, this results in a decrease of standing stock and timber harvest up to 15%. Financial consequences were similar for all scenarios, predicting a decreased income. This is mainly due to the conversion of Corsican pine, but to some extent compensated by higher consideration of Douglas and Larch. The huge increase of birch area urges for new management and marketing approaches.
The final scenario is now being translated into harvesting and regeneration directives for individual stands. A first evaluation is due within 5 years.
|Has reference=Moonen, P., Kint, V., Deckmyn, G., Muys, B. (2011). Wetenschappelijke onderbouwing van een lange termijnplan houtproductie voor Bosland.

Kint, V., Deckmyn, G., Campioli, M., Vansteenkiste, D., Aertsen, W., Bequet, R., Van Acker, J., Muys, B., Ceulemans, R. (2011). SimForTree - Een beleidsondersteunend computermodel voor duurzaam bosbeheer gebaseerd op ecofysiologische analyse en simulatie van boomontwikkeling.
|Has wiki contact person=Wim Aertsen
|Has wiki contact e-mail=wim.aertsen[at]ees.kuleuven.be
||Has DSS development=Belgium-Participative modelling of long-term wood production in the forest complex ‘Bosland’.Description of DSS development
|Has decision support techniques=Belgium-Participative modelling of long-term wood production in the forest complex ‘Bosland’.Decision support techniques
|Has knowledge management processes=Belgium-Participative modelling of long-term wood production in the forest complex ‘Bosland’.Knowledge management process
|Has support for social participation=Belgium-Participative modelling of long-term wood production in the forest complex ‘Bosland’.Support of social participation
}}