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The Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA) is a spatially explicit, GIS-based landscape-level model for simulating terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. It helps resource managers and planners assess the consequences of alternative management scenarios at the landscape scale. Unlike many other strategic planning models of landscape dynamics, TELSA takes into account natural disturbances so that users can explore how their proposed management strategies will interact with vegetation succession and disturbances to alter landscape composition and structure. TELSA can be used as a tool for landscape modelling, for adaptive management, or for any other planning process that involves different groups of experts and stakeholders who need to compare and assess the outcomes of different assumptions across space and time. At the core of the process is a tool with which to simulate multiple scenarios, each characterised by different assumptions about management actions and natural disturbances. The results of scenarios are compared in terms of several indicators relevant to the stakeholders in the planning process. Since wildfires and other natural disturbance events that affect vegetation dynamics are inherently unpredictable, the model can use multiple stochastic simulations of each scenario to provide estimates of the mean, range and variability of future values of the selected performance indicators.
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